
by Mark Falcoff
The late sociologist Lowry Nelson, one of the first American academics to devote serious attention to Cuba, wrote that "all revolutions are matters of controversy: their achievements and even their justifications are debated for generations after they happen."
"What will happen to Cuba after Castro? And what will happen if the system Castro created survives him? What will post-Castro Cuba mean for the United States?" "These are the questions Mark Falcoff addresses in Cuba the Morning After, a comprehensive study of the issues facing the island and its relations with the United States after more than four decades of Communist rule." "In 1958, Cuba ranked near the top in Latin America in most indices of development - urbanization, services, health, and literacy. Today, Cuba is poorer than at any time in its modern history, unable to feed its people. The country's antiquated sugar industry is near collapse. The $6 billion annual subsidy Cuba received from the Soviet Union for three decades is gone. Like most Caribbean islands, Cuba survives today on tourism and remittances from former citizens living abroad, but neither source of income can replace the once thriving sugar industry or even the Soviet subsidy." "Since the collapse of the Soviet empire, media attention has focused on the controversy lifting the U.S. trade embargo. This debate, Mr. Falcoff argues, is largely irrelevant. Far more important are the formidable problems the United States is certain to face in dealing with Castro's legacy. Communism has wrought enormous destruction on the island - a failing economy; widespread poverty; environmental degradation; political repression; and an impoverished population with expectations of free housing, free education, and free health care." "Many assume that after Castro, the island will readily return to dynamic enterprise, …
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